فصلنامه پژوهش های حفاظتی - امنیتی
پیاپی 41 (زمستان 1400)

Phenomena, trends and situations that are created in a society in some cases have the ability to become a security crisis and if these phenomena and situations are estimated in a logical process and by mentioning all the dimensions, details, levels and... are carefully analyzed, that this action (continuous assessment of phenomena) is also one of the main and undeniable missions of intelligence institutions, the governing body will be able to estimate security crises and prevent them from occurring. Considering the high importance of information estimation in the prevention of security crises, in this research, an attempt has been made to analyze the role of information estimation in the prevention of security crises in the Islamic Republic of Iran by using library studies. It was found that information estimation is not just based on speculation, but a serious, rational process, containing impartial research, accurate information activity and a clear and clear statement of the latest state of phenomena that can be converted based on evidence and evidence. to the crisis, and in the Islamic Republic of Iran, information assessment should play its real role as an important factor in preventing security crises.

In the western view, four reasons for the existence of intelligence organizations are mentioned. The main purpose of the current research is to mention the reason for the inadequacy and shortcoming of the western approach in introducing the four reasons for the existence of intelligence organizations and introducing another reason for existence (in addition to the previous four reasons for existence). In order to answer the main question of this research, the most important library and web-based (internet) data are examined with descriptive-analytical method and qualitative comparison method is used to test the hypothesis. In this research, the western approach to the reasons for the existence of intelligence organizations has been chosen as the theoretical framework. Although the reasons for the failure of this approach are scrutinized in terms of epistemology. Therefore, this research seeks to answer the main question that “Which reason for existence can create a distinct and different identity for the intelligence organizations of the Islamic Republic of Iran compared to Western intelligence organizations?” It presents the hypothesis that “due to the dominance of the positivist epistemological approach in the West (especially the United States and the United Kingdom), the main goal of Western intelligence organizations is the key concept of “control”, which is manifested in the four reasons for existence. By using Islamic epistemology (emphasis on revelation along with reason and sense to fully understand existence), basing the hadiths of the Holy Prophet of Islam (pbuh) on praising service to people on the one hand and accepting a three-dimensional definition of information (information to For example: 1) product, 2) activity and 3) organization) on the other hand, another component called helping the political structure in order to provide optimal services to the society and create satisfaction in the people through positive influence on policy makers and structures (without interfering in executive affairs) is introduced as the fifth reason for the existence of intelligence organizations of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The results of the research show that in this direction, nine effective measures can be followed by the intelligence organizations of the Islamic Republic of Iran (without interfering in executive affairs), which is shown by using the qualitative comparison method that these nine measures are different from the four The reason for the existence of intelligence organizations is from the point of view of Westerners.

The lack of proper warning measures to prevent potential social, political and security phenomena from becoming an impactful event, the infrastructure for the development of security faces serious challenges. Events in the years of 96 and 98 showed a change in the approach of the enemies of the Islamic system in the expansion of conflict areas and gathering centers and increased the amount of damages. Considering the current conditions of the society and the existence of economic problems, the increase in the inflation rate, corona virus and the subsequent increase in unemployment, the intensification of dissatisfaction, the surfing of anti-revolutionary elements, the occurrence of disturbances in the future environment is likely and the necessary measures must be taken to prevent the repetition of bitter events. The concern of the researcher is what, why and how the phenomenon is discussed in the future environment. In this research, using the data mining technique and interview tool, while examining some past researches, in order to answer the question, “Which is the sociological and cognitive security analysis of future environmental unrest based on the optimal warning measures?” was taken that after the findings, it was concluded that the indicators related to the “sociological” dimension have a higher position than the “security-cognitive” dimension in the field of analyzing possible future disturbances, so that 62% of the categories extracted from the interview is related to this dimension. Also, according to the assessment, in the “sociological” dimension, the highest impact on the occurrence of possible disturbances in the future environment, related to the three indicators “feeling of injustice and discrimination (basic economy)”; “relative deprivation (social position)”; “marginalization” and in the dimension of “cognitive security” related to “the enemy’s use of religious and economic faults”; “surfing” and “flow management”.

Considering the increasing needs of the country’s defense supply chain to use the latest technologies in the field of strengthening the defense forces in the face of advanced threats and also the need to provide part of these requirements from abroad, but the international sanctions imposed against the Islamic Republic of Iran has been one of the challenges in this regard. In order to obtain the required technologies, the supply chain is forced to carry out commercial interactions with foreign countries, and due to the embargo of all industries related to the defense field, it is not possible to do this directly, and it is necessary to use internal intermediaries and contractors. It should be used in this regard that the requirement for this was the conclusion of contracts for the supply of goods and services, and sometimes in these contracts the contractors used the issue of sanctions as a force majeure and unforeseen event to fail to fulfill their obligations. This issue and the examination of the element of force majeure in commercial contracts have adopted appropriate solutions to prevent the occurrence of problems in contracts. The research method was a descriptive-explanatory mixed method with a tool for collecting library information and checking existing contracts. Considering the results obtained and the characteristics of the contracts concluded in the supply chain of the armed forces, such as confidentiality and financial and time limitations in the supply of items, one of the solutions is to prevent the contracts of these collections from entering into long judicial processes by using other levers and tools. It is specified in the law of contracts and the like, which is explained in the text of the research.

Compensation will serve as a lesson to the cause of damage and other members of society and will be a strong motivation to prevent harmful behavior in the future. Condemning rioters to pay damages is one of the ways to prevent street riots. According to many jurists, the main goal of compensation is to deter and prevent future losses, and restoring the previous situation is the next priority. The lack of a legal text causes the damages of riots not to be compensated, which, in addition to causing undue damage to the victim, distorts the necessary deterrence at the scene of the riots. Therefore, the aim of the current research is to draw legal solutions to compensate for the damages caused by riots as a preventive solution for the occurrence of riots. The method of achieving this goal is descriptive and analytical, and the collection of data and information is documents, scientific documents and questionnaires. The summary findings of the research indicate that the compensation order has a deterrent role in riots and the adoption of a law containing solutions and methods of compensation will be of great help in preventing riots and damages. According to the researchers of this research, issuing a compensation order can be a means to prevent the interference of foreign governments and a deterrent element in the behavior of parties, groups, managers and officials. Deprivation of the people involved in the disturbance and referral of the paying institutions to the cause of the loss are among the effective mechanisms in preventing the occurrence of losses. It also appears from the legal texts of other legal systems that compensation has been used as a tool to control and prevent riots.

The evolution in international security theories causes changes in international legal-normative foundations and this causes different levels from interpretation to change and repeal of laws, which at least creates a different interpretation and rather different from the previous interpretations. And the maximum is the copying of previous laws or changes in the meaning of common laws, therefore it requires that the theories proposed in the field of international security be studied in order to evaluate the ratio of theories and laws, their mutual influence and impact on each other. and the formation of new processes of norming and legislation in the international environment should be understood correctly. Based on this, the main question of this research is that what consequences does the theory of impact-oriented operations create in the realization and application of international humanitarian rights and, consequently, in guaranteeing the national security of areas involved in armed conflicts? To answer this question, a descriptive-analytical method was used, and the summary result of this research is that the theory of influence-oriented operations, through overcoming and imposing its will on international law, intends to affect the process of legislation in the international arena and This will ultimately endanger the flow of security and peace both in the national and international spheres.